This will overwhelm the healthcare debate, and healthcare reform is almost certainly a one time opportunity. There is a fundamental misapplication of the President's efforts, a disappointing continuation of the Bush Administration. Bush cut taxes, de-regulated, and expected the private sector to solve all our economic problems. Obama has initiated an ambitious government spending plan to stimulate the economy, and expected this to solve all our economic problems. Neither addresses the reality: Our free market economy is an organic entity, like any other. It is essentially a collection of people and the summation of their decisions on a daily basis. The economy thrives when we as consumers, business owners, or investors spend, expand, employ, and demonstrate ambition. The economy suffers when we all do the opposite. We are in a deep psychological malaise as a nation. We need to kick start our engine with leadership, focus, and the right balance of tax and government incentives. It feels to me like the Obama Administration are not clued in to the vital importance of getting the economy on the right track as the most urgent priority.
President Obama's first six months in power have been mixed, in my opinion. He has excelled and inspired in ways that no President has since Reagan or Kennedy. He has been strident, brave and confrontational in ways that make the Clinton Administration look timid. However, I think there has also been a great deal of naivete. Obama was always going to have to grow into the Presidency, as did Bush and Clinton before him, but its a very steep learning curve that is required, considering the dire circumstances we face as a nation, at home and abroad.
I say this all as a fervent supporter of Obama's during the campaign, and someone who remains very supportive of the new Administration: Obama needs to do better. He has done well, sporadically, but overall he's missed too many opportunities, and squandered too much of his political capital, already. Here is my assessment on his 1st six months in office... the good, the bad, and the ugly.
The Good
Pirate Hostage Crisis: Facing overwhelming criticism from right wing commentators eager to characterize Obama as the second coming of Jimmy Carter, Obama was true to himself, taking decisive action devoid of the Presidential bravado that has alienated so many of our allies over the past 8 years. He was brave, strong, and set a standard that will save lives in the future. He made his political opponents eat their words.
Rescuing The Financial Sector: While somewhere in the region of 90% of the population would disagree with this assertion, I think Obama's greatest accomplishment has been the stabilization of the financial sector in the wake of plummeting stocks values, collapsing institutions, and a looming catastrophe. While Treasury Secretary Geithner stumbled initially, his plan to remove bad assets from the balance sheet of America's struggling banks was the crucial catalyst the financial sector was looking for to stabilize, reassured that most banks were not on the brink of disaster and ruin.
A 6 month chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average demonstrates quite clearly that Obama helped bring the financial sector back from the brink.
Diplomatic Relations: Obama's steps in reaching out to other nations with humility and grace, while not paying immediate dividends with increased Allied military commitments to Afghanistan, has nonetheless transformed the dynamic of the international community. The United States is no longer isolated, and its capabilities are greatly enhanced. Our President is once again, truly, the leader of the free world, inspiring disparate nations with their tremendous admiration for his nobility, idealism, and yes, humility.
The Middle East: Islamic nations are amongst the most repressed in the world. One of the primary means of sustaining this oppression is the exploitation of the United States as the "Great Satan," consolidating national and religious fervor in opposition to us, and our way of life. By reaching out in his outstanding speech in Cairo, Obama played a direct role in empowering citizens in Iran to see their corrupt, theocratic, power hungry, totalitarian dictators for what they are, devoid of the US/Arab antagonistic dynamic. When Obama made that speech he was inspiring the kind of change that doesn't require our guns, blood, or treasure to be spent.
The Bad
Press Management and Partisanship: While the President has wisely capitalized on his compelling persona, and reinvigorated the White House with his beautiful, accessible and profoundly charming family, he has recklessly mischaracterized his opponents, most notably in his incomprehensible shot at Fox News a week ago.
President George W. Bush arrived in Washington in 2001 with an impressive track record of bi-partisanship as Governor of Texas. But, what was different about Texas was that a political consensus essentially existed between the parties on matters of policy. That left Bush in a position to express significant Bi-Partisan sentiment, like the notable appointments of Democrats, without having to compromise his rigid policy agenda. Arriving in Washington, he quickly realized that Democrats weren't going to be receptive to sentiment in areas like Social Security and Healthcare. They wanted real policy concessions.
Bush wanted to do what he believed was right, at the end of the day, and quickly abandoned his efforts of bi-partisanship in favor of one of the most partisan Administration's in history, eviscerating the Democratic Party in the 2002 Mid-Term elections, riding the wave of sky high, post 9/11 approval ratings.
It saddens me to say this, but right now I see absolutely nothing different in how President Obama is conducting his administration.
Fox News is a politically right wing news channel. But, so is the Wall Street Journal, and a variety of different news sources. By contrast there are many news sources with a left of center perspective. What perplexes me is the way partisans on both sides attack Fox, or MSNBC, or the New York Times, as if they don't have the right to position themselves politically however they choose. It does no disservice to their viewers and certainly no disservice to the political discourse. By attempting to isolate Fox News, he is diminishing their viewers, and the many fair and valid viewpoints that those on the right side of the political spectrum bring to the table.
People generally like Obama, and he has expressed a great deal of bi-partisan sentiment. Thus, the phenomena of Obamacons in the lead up to the election. But, his support among Republicans and some Independents is cratering, precisely because there has been nothing but sentiment expressed towards the other side over the past six months. Yes, the Republican Party is experiencing a crisis of epic proportions. Yes, you can take the view, like Bush and Republicans, that this nation is divided and bi-partisanship is a wasteful expenditure of energy and resources.
But, what Bill Clinton, and the Republican congress of the 1990's demonstrated was that bi-partisanship is about real compromise. Therein lies the potential of great accomplishments. Real consensus was forged on welfare to work, spending reductions, and that allowed Clinton to accomplish more in other areas. If the stimulus bill included a greater emphasis on tax cuts, and a relatively small reduction in investment dollars, perhaps, more Republican's may have supported the bill. On the budget, if Obama had reached out to Republicans that were trying to restrain spending, instead of Republicans who wanted to add their pork barrel projects to the record $3.1 trillion budget, maybe he would be better positioned now to speak authoritatively on controlling the deficit and national debt without so many effective attacks negating his message. Bi-partisanship requires real compromise and consensus. In my opinion that consensus can be found in the following areas: controlling spending, controlling healthcare costs, and tax cuts for lower to middle income Americans, as part of the economic stimulus.
It's fair to say that the Democratic party was in chaos in 2002, when James Carville put a trash bin on his head in embarrassment at the party's performance in the mid-term election. Four years later everything had changed, and yet the Democrats, in actuality, didn't do much to alter their message or policy proposals.
Obama and Democrats should not be fooled. The Republicans will be back.
The Economy and Spending: To hear Republicans suddenly be up in arms about the deficit and debt as if this is a new problem that Obama has created is extremely frustrating. For me, Obama has insufficiently explained the damage that has been done to the country over the last eight years as a result of the growth of spending during an era of Republican control of the Presidency and Congress. Just look at this list of Presidential vetoes and you can understand better why this country is on the verge of bankruptcy:
GEORGE W. BUSH VETOES: 12 (President Bush did not cast his first veto until his sixth year in office - a measure to extend federal funding of stem cell research.) BILL CINTON VETOES: 37 (not counting line item vetoes) GEORGE H.W. BUSH: 44 REAGAN: 78 CARTER; 31 FORD: 66
As you can see from the chart below, National Debt as a percentage of GDP also increased dramatically during the Reagan era, and yet, to be fair, rather than confront this reality, Obama has shirked it, with the simple, naive, and Cheney-esque rationalization, that now is not the time to address deficits and debt. I couldn't disagree more.
Yes, we have to invest wisely, and government has to create jobs where it can. But, as we have seen thus far, in spite of the stabilization of the financial sector, the economy on main street is still in extremely terrible shape. Even financially secure businesses are cutting back, people are losing jobs left and right, consumerism is in the tank, and the unemployment rolls are getting out of control. The stimulus requires time to take effect, but the reality is that this economy needs to start moving in the right direction again now. The bleeding has not stopped, because the marketplace has been codified. Banks and businesses don't want to extend credit, there are very few new businesses being started, nobody wants to make big purchases likes homes or cars, and as a result it is a viscous cycle perpetuating itself.
The 1990's benefited from the tech boom, but it is also true that sound fiscal management in those early years of the Clinton Administration created the context from which the economy could flourish. That's what the prospect of long term low unemployment, long term low inflation, long term low interest rates, and long term fiscal restraint from government can accomplish. These basic tenets are the foundation for market confidence to re-emerge, in my opinion, and thus far, they haven't been emphasized as fundamental to our nation's economic recovery by President Obama. Instead he has focused too much on the stimulus bill, and regulating the business community. Both are essential pursuits, but neither will come remotely close to fixing our current economic woes.
Additionally, as I mentioned in a previous post, Obama has set the wrong tone for business in this country. It is important to address the wrongs that lead to the collapse of financial institutions. It's important to address the way people were taken advantage of, and were also living beyond their means. But, it is not correct to address these components to our economy to the detriment of the majority of Americans who go to work, work honest and hard, pay their bills, start businesses, create jobs, and conduct themselves with integrity trying to support loved ones and family. That is the core of American society and it is something to be celebrated and focused upon.
Obama has not emphasized sufficiently the importance of enterprise, risk taking, and the American spirit of entrepreneurship. That is the engine we need to kick start right now. If only he could invest some of his inspirational words into the business community I think his leadership would go a long way. I would recommend a week long nationwide tour, from state to state, speaking from successful businesses, start ups and older companies, some big and some small, telling stories of success in this economic climate, and celebrating ingenuity, enterprise, and determination. The private sector needs leadership and no one is stepping up to the plate. Obama's natural proclivity is to be skeptical of business, that is clear, and there is nothing wrong with that after 8 years of George W. Bush. But, he also has to strike the right balance, cognizant of our capitalist free market economy.
Healthcare: Contrary to popular opinion, I don't believe Obama has learned the lessons of 93/94 and failure of the Clinton Healthcare plan to pass congress. Hillary's plan did not fail because of what it contained, or because of who was or wasn't at the table, it failed because, in the midst of a recession and general economic anxiety, Bill Clinton did not have the political capital to get it passed. If Clinton had waited until his second term, perhaps the self inflicted damage of those early years would not have led to Republican control of congress. In addition, with the booming economy and a budget surplus, Clinton then might have had the right circumstances to reach out to the American people to support expanding healthcare coverage for the uninsured and underinsured. The national debt is currently approaching 12 trillion dollars. The economy is flailing and the federal deficit is soaring. Taking on dramatic healthcare reform now will fail. To accomplish something this big requires Obama earning the requisite political capital and creating the right set of circumstances to win widespread public support for the right kind of action and not just merely a willingness to try and fix the problem.
I particularly take issue with the notion that healthcare requires immediate action. Healthcare reform is not about simply fixing the problems of today. It is about a more just society for generations to come. For all of the many critiques made about single payer healthcare or mixed public/private healthcare, the populations of those countries employing these systems are ultimately satisfied with what they have. However, those systems were created generations ago, by brave political leaders who earned healthcare rights for generations to come. That is the greater responsibility of action on healthcare. Not acting impatiently for immediate reasons, but guaranteeing lasting change for the nation for the long term future. Obama's focus should be the economy. Investing in green technology and new sources of energy is a potential component of an economic recovery that I could understand being focused on. Healthcare goes to the heart of the nation's identity, and sense of individual liberty free from government intervention. It requires a great debate to have any hope of success. This isn't remotely possible right now.
Guantanamo Bay: Like many of my fellow Liberals I cheered when I heard Guantanamo would be closed. It has been a thoughtless blight on our foreign policy. These prisoners of war should have been processed in military tribunals and imprisoned domestically, in my opinion, in states without the death penalty to prevent them being made into martyrs. So much of what has been accomplished in the middle east is directly due to the commitment to close Gitmo.
But, I cannot wrap my head around the idea that Obama promised to close the detention center without knowing how he would do it. The year deadline was a good one. It took the political wind out of the issue in the national discourse. But, I think its creating a bigger problem that will become an issue in the future. I don't see how any decision like this can be made without a clear commitment, no matter how politically unpopular it may be, to an alternative solution. The detainees must be imprisoned domestically. Right now it seems like the Administration is searching out alternatives, after already committing to a deadline, and this makes them look incredibly haphazard in matters of terrorism and war.
The Ugly
North Korea: During the pirate stand off many accusations of weakness were made and ultimately Obama demonstrated that behind the scenes he was prepared to make the tough decisions to stand his ground and be aggressive. Everyone likes to say that Kim Jong-Il is crazy and his insolence is provocative on purpose. But, the reality is it doesn't matter. Each and everyday North Korea becomes a greater national security threat as a proliferator and a wielder of weapons of mass destruction. We insufficiently utilized the carrot at the beginning of the Bush administration, but at the same time, we cannot ignore the importance of the stick at the beginning of the Obama administration. There must be consequences otherwise Kim Jong-Il will continue to behave this way. I am confident that Obama and Hillary are working behind the scenes, but they must act decisively soon. The reality of the action in Iraq, for all of its many faults, is that it did send a strong message around the world about the U.S.'s commitment to enforcing consequences. It was swiftly followed by Libya's full compliance with the international community. That didn't make the Iraq war worthwhile by any means. Obama has to act otherwise he will be setting up a situation where other rogue nations feel emboldened to flout the will of the international community.
In the Wake of Dubya
In conclusion, I still believe very strongly that Obama is the right man for this job, and like with all younger President's he is finding his way as commander in chief and learning as he goes. It is a process of discovery, unfortunately, and he is learning about who he wants to be as President in the context of challenges we face. But, those challenges are daunting, due, indisputably, to the shocking mess the Bush administration has left this country in. Ultimately Obama will be judged on the state that he leaves the nation in, and that is what he must work towards. By the same token it is amazing to me how Republican commentators are so chronically divorced from reality. In the last decade we lost a budget surplus, sound fiscal management, our standing in the world, thousands of lives in Iraq, many millions of jobs, and a fundamentally strong economy. As muddled as Obama has been at times, there is no doubting the enormity of the challenges he has been left to confront.
"If we do not make common cause to save the good old ship of the Union on this voyage, nobody will have a chance to pilot her on another voyage." - President Abraham Lincoln
I don't have the time these days to post as frequently as I'd like to in regards to President Obama's early days in office. It's been an immensely challenging set of circumstances that he has inherited, and the savagery of the right, in ramping up public hysteria in opposition to his policies, has been excessive to say the least.
The reality is that Obama can do nothing right, as of this moment. With the economy struggling, everything will be viewed through a negative prism, and his deficiencies highlighted. He has to retain the temperament to push through with his proposals in pursuit of results and nothing more. Only those results will make a fundamental difference to the political climate he operates in.
However, there are criticisms that I would make of Obama. The financial sector remains the foundational architecture of our society as a capitalist nation. No matter their excesses, and in spite of their destructive greed, they must be a crucial part of rallying the nation to recover from this recession while creating the right kind of momentum and expansion. Obama's language and political calculations, in my opinion, have been too anti-business. He is taking every opportunity to castigate wall street and feed into public anger. The promise of Obama was always that he would rise above such sentimental politicking. His response to the AIG crisis felt like a President trying to be a "man of the people" and a populist. But, for me Obama's mandate was always not to succumb to these trivialities and govern in a practical non-ideological manner.
Right now the financial sector is reeling from the sense that government is no longer on its side. The reality is that government, and the private sector, have to work together, in our respective interests, to create a more secure and sound economy for the future. The 90% tax on AIG bonuses will do nothing to foster the positive momentum the financial sector requires, as much as it serves to satiate the current anger amongst the public. Obama has to put House Democrats in their place on this, in my opinion.
However, I do find it extremely frustrating to hear those on the right whining about Obama putting our children in debt for generations to come. Where were these people while Bush was decimating our surplus and turning 4 trillion dollars of national debt into 10 trillion dollars? Where were these people when Bush didn't use his veto for his entire first term in office?
Like Dick Cheney, they were busy suggesting that deficits don't matter in the short term, as we dealt with perceived crises (somewhat ironic). Their hypocrisy, and complicity in the mismanagement of government is the reason why we are in this terrible mess. To listen to them now proclaim to be bastion's of fiscal discipline is utterly ludicrous.
Obama simply must focus on the economy. It's the basis upon which everything else will be possible. Energy, healthcare, and education may form components of this effort, but they should not absorb the country as we all attempt to rebuild. A new green economy might truly yield the solution for America's regained economic greatness in this still young century, but ultimately, no matter the billions of government investment that is made, this expansion must emerge from the private sector, given the right conditions.
Overall, I am proud of the President. He is remaining calm, in spite of the intense scrutiny. He will receive no credit now, but in time, his actions will be viewed in a very different light. He must compensate for the failings of his Treasury Secretary. Geithner is no leader, and the financial sector are desperately in need of a leader, sans Greenspan.
The President, Congress, our children, hard working Americans, small business owners, entrepreneurs, local and state government, the federal government, stock traders, C.E.O.'s and wall street all have a role to play in the recovery WE WILL make. The truth is, we're all in this together...
"Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature."- Abraham Lincoln: First Inaugural Address
Bill Clinton, for a very long time, represented the best of what Democrats could aspire to. In many ways he was a reflection of his time, and, perhaps, a level of egocentric survivalism that was inherent to his generation.
Bill Clinton was like a reality show contestant; plotting, triangulating, and emerging victorious, admirably. He defeated vicious foes that had employed loathsome attacks in 1988, eviscerating Dukakis. Those foes were prepared to do the same to the Democratic nominee in 1992 and Bill Clinton was a byproduct of this political reality. He was an antidote to Reagan's Republican national majority that was earned partly through bitter cultural divisions. Those divisions were cleverly exacerbated by George H. W. Bush in his race with Dukakis after Reagan had served two successive terms, winning two dramatic landslides. Many didn't believe it was possible for a Democrat to get elected President in 1992.
However, much to chagrin of Republicans, in sync with popular culture and compassionately engaged with the economic downturn, Bill Clinton charismatically resonated with an electorate that was redefining itself. The Vietnam era was finally slipping into the recesses of the nation's subconscious, (lying dormant, ready to emerge a decade later after September 11th and the lead up to the Iraq war).
Bill Clinton was a good President. He was a smart and practical man, who understood complex policy issues. In power, with the assistance of Dick Morris, he learned how to market himself to the center right. "The era of big government is over," he proudly announced, and slowly, but surely, he lost his compass, if it ever existed in the first place. As he scrambled in his final months to instigate a middle east peace process to cement his legacy it became apparent to me the extent of Bill Clinton's selfishness. He achieved everything he ever strived for, winning two successive terms and retaining the approval of large sways of the American people. But, in doing so, sound economic governance aside, no great strides were made. The success of his re-branding of the Democratic party with notions like the "third way" complemented a society where rampant commercialism was augmenting itself at the root of the national culture. Democrats admired Bill Clinton because he could win. Democrats admired Bill Clinton because of the proficient manner in which he played the game. His campaign staff called him "the secretariat," the ultimate political thoroughbred. If I'm honest with myself, that is why I admired him so deeply, too.
In Newsweek's outstanding journalistic opus charting the behind the scenes story from this year's Presidential campaign, the following passage stood out to me:
"Obama was upset with his own campaign after a low-level staffer referred in a press release to Hillary Clinton as "(D-Punjab)" because of her ties to supporters of India. "I don't want you guys freelancing and, quote, protecting me from what you're doing," he lectured his staff. "I'm saying this loud and clear—no winks, no nods here," he said, irritated to take the heat for a clumsy dirty trick he had not known about and would never have authorized. "I'm looking at every one of you. If you think you're close to the line, the answer isn't to protect me—the answer is to ask me."
It's so refreshing to think we have a President who truly understands the meaning of responsibility. After the disastrous last eight years, and the apparent state of denial of the Bush Administration, it is especially satisfying to consider the example this sets for all of us to take control of our lives, stand up for our mistakes, and not allow circumstances to control us or excuse us. A moment like this is the very definition of leadership and an expectation that we no longer have of our public officials in the excess of our growing cynicism and distrust.
Like John McCain, and to a lesser degree Sarah Palin and Joe Biden, Barack Obama's success can be directly attributed to his authenticity. He is a good man who has campaigned with integrity, and to me that aspect of his election speaks just as loudly as the fact that we have just elected the first African-American President. While Barack Obama has many parallels with Bill Clinton, and arguably represents a continuation of his policies to a greater extent than Hillary did, Obama also embodies many qualities that are quite absent from the former President. Part of that could be his youth and inexperience, but after being tested so dramatically in this campaign, and never faltering, I'm inclined to believe it is much more than that.
As Lincoln evoked so eloquently in his 1st inaugural address, national divisions, like those we have experienced these last eight years, can be assuaged by the "better angels of our nature . . . swelling the chorus of our union." And so Barack Obama has uplifted large sways of this country. There is an optimism surging nationwide that many have been longing for, founded on Obama's idealism, intelligence, hopefullness, and integrity.
In any democracy a President is a product of his or her era. Like Bill, Barack is a product of his. What inspired him to run for the office in early 2007 was an intuitive sense that people were ready for change. But, in reality that yearning he sensed was about much more than just change. We are in the midst of this new era, and as a result, it is impossible to say, with any degree of certainty, why Obama is so quintessentially of this time. Yes, his election counters the Bush Adminstration failures, and yes, it was a Democratic year. But, like with Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, and Kennedy, Obama's victory says much more than that about who we have become as a nation now.
In my opinion, the internet has transformed the consciousness of my generation and that explains the largest part of it. We are no longer an apathetic mass of marijuana bongs, beer pitchers, partying, and ecstasy pills. We are no longer an aimless mass with restricted avenues of self expression. Through the internet we are fully engaged with each other, charting out our own territory in the midst of an enthralling political discourse that is blossoming from youtube, to blogs, to message forums, and chat rooms. We have friends thousands of miles across the globe, from every continent, and country. As a result, we are less parochial, and much more internationally aware. We are environmentally conscious, and economically conscious. We are all activists now in our own way.
In addition, this new form of media is creating a powerful context for accountability that dismantles populist concepts like "Joe The Plumber" and counters unfair and dishonest negative attacks with the irrefutable truth of good humor, sarcasm and wit. We are a different nation than we were during the Clinton years, and while Obama has, to a certain extent, led us in this direction over the past twelve months, in many ways, this new generation has led him, too.
It is yet to be seen whether Obama will be a good President. It's quite possible that he won't be. But, he has already demonstrated that he is a much greater man than Bill Clinton ever was. To the extent that our leaders are a reflection of society at large I believe this says very good things about where we are heading over the coming decades. Suddenly, the prospect of great progress worldwide within my lifetime on matters of war, poverty, disease, the environment, economic opportunity, and social justice, do not seem so out of reach.
November 4th was the day that Barack Obama was elected the 44th President of the United States, but, November 4th was not the day that change came to America. Instead, it was the day that a changed nation, and a new generation, stood up, went to vote, and made sure its voice was finally heard.
The dramatic surge against the Labour Party in the UK 1992 General Election, against all opinion poll data, was actually used as inspiration by the Clinton campaign later that year to avert the same occurrence. However, Labour's policies, especially on taxation, were far more left wing than anything Obama is even close to proposing in his platform. Also, Labour's previous stint in power in the UK, from 1975 to 1979 had coincided with a national economic meltdown. For this reason I don't see the same thing happening this Tuesday, as Clinton's time in office is much more re-assuring to voters in Obama's favor.
However, I can remember nothing more nationally traumatizing than the Labour defeat in 1992. It was against all expectations and extended the Conservative term in power from 12 to 17 years. The nation had to wait another 5 years until a triumphant 1997 and a Tony Blair victory. But, it was well worth the wait.
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